Is Inflation Trumps solution?

Current Markets are choppy and indecisive. Our Smart Money Tracker reveals why: Since June we see alternating Bearish and Bullish Impulses, combined with alternating Accumulations and Distributions. This is Rotation going on, yielding a choppy sideways market, perfect to loose money.

In physics, systems tend to start to oscillating heavily, when they approach a regime which is less stable. Compared to financial Markets, we could transfer this model and define a stable Bull-Trends , which is followed by a heavily oscillating Top-Formation. Well, we don’t know yet if this is a top or just a sideways consolidation. However, The smart money tracker reveals only thin support and resistance lines in teh current market range from 730 to 750 (SPY). Underneath, there is a massive gap, caused by the massive April to June rally, which happened on very thin volume. No, we don’t use the term “Market-Manipulation” to explain this rally, we just note what happened… Solid support is found around the level 680. Could we see a pullback to 680? Currently we are missing solid risks to trigger such a correction, our Risk Analysis can’t detect any reaqsonable risks in the system right now. However, risks are always there: 1. The US-Debt Timebomb, caused by exuberant spending of the Trump administration and an upcoming Debt-refinancing wall

US Borrowing

2. A FED policy, which tends to become more and more intransparent under the new chair
3. The global impact of the One-Man Tweet-Show, causing new wars in teh Middle east and potential Oil price shocks

4. The Private-Credit shadow makret, now believed to be larger than the regulated credit market.

5. combined with rising auto loan defaults and credit card delinquencies

6. AI and data center bubble