Market Analysis — 13 November 2025
While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promises that by 2026 everyday prices will finally fall — bananas cheaper, coffee cheaper, everything bigger-better-beautifuller — markets appear to be reading from a very different script.
During his latest remarks, Bessent said that “people will start feeling better about the economy in the first half of 2026,” supported by actions aimed at lowering prices of everyday goods like bananas and coffee
→ Reuters source: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bessent-says-substantial-moves-coming-cut-us-prices-coffee-other-items-2025-11-12/
He also doubled down on his love letter to stablecoins, arguing that:
“Stablecoins could create two trillion dollars in demand for U.S. Treasuries in no time at all.”
— https://bitcoinblog.de/2025/05/27/us-treasury-secretary-stablecoins-could-create-two-trillion-in-bond-demand/
And that this new digital rail will “buttress the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency.”
→ https://www.axios.com/2025/03/07/trump-stablecoins-dollar
Meanwhile, our charts say: Hmmm… really?
A Market That Doesn’t Match the Story
Despite the S&P 500 printing bullish signals, the sector rotation pattern is flashing warnings:
- Defensives and Value are leading over Tech
- Dow > Nasdaq (classic late-cycle tell)
- Gold and Silver making new highs
- Bitcoin tanking
- Most big AI stocks sharply underperforming
This is the kind of market where price is strong but internals are quietly rotting.
Bessent claims “demand for Treasuries is higher than ever,” which may be true — yields are falling.
But Gold and Silver are telling the opposite story: investors may be losing trust in the USD itself.
Now add the fact that global allocators appear to be losing trust in the entire U.S. macro-political setup.
Large investment flows are increasingly redirected toward:
- Asia (EM Asia, India, China)
- Europe (Germany, Italy, UK)
- Brazil
- …but not Argentina.
Ironically, Bessent invests in Argentina.
Just to keep the plot spicy.
Why the Gold–Equity Combo Matters
The S&P 500 and Gold/Silver printing all-time highs simultaneously is historically rare.
-
Forbes notes this combination occurred only once before — in the early 1970s, and “the last time ended badly.”
→ https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandonkochkodin/2025/09/23/heres-why-gold-and-stocks-are-both-setting-record-highs-something-that-rarely-happens/ -
Investopedia confirms new highs in metals alongside a strong stock market in late 2025.
→ https://www.investopedia.com/why-gold-and-silver-keep-hitting-record-highs-11829464
Historically, this kind of pattern tends to show up:
- Late in a bull market
- When inflation expectations rise again
- When “safe assets” (metals) outperform “growth assets” (tech)
In other words:
The market is bullish — but distrust is rising under the surface.
Outlook
The SP500 Indicator still classifies the market as bullish.
Momentum remains supportive, and the price structure is intact.
But the heavy rotation into Value, Metals, and non-US markets is a textbook sign of a maturing / late-cycle bull.
Our base case:
- Bull market continues through 2025
- Condition 1: The Federal Reserve cuts rates
- Condition 2: QE returns in some form
- Condition 3: Economic data does not derail
If the Fed hesitates, or if economic surprises roll over, the combination of:
- Metals strength
- Tech weakness
- Dow outperformance
- EM inflows
…could quickly turn from a rotation into a regime change.
For now, the bull is still alive — just older, heavier, and walking a bit funny.