Market Analysis
Green light for Swing Trades in LONG Direction.
After Monday’s Accumulation signal, the S&P 500 Indicator has shifted back into positive territory, giving a clear green light for long swing trades. Value and defensive sectors continue to lead over pure tech names, suggesting investors are rotating toward stability rather than chasing momentum. The overall tone has improved, with buying interest broadening beyond the mega-caps.
The end of the government shutdown has further boosted sentiment. With key economic data and agency operations resuming, liquidity conditions are expected to normalise, reducing the uncertainty that weighed on markets through late October. Short-term, this reopening of fiscal channels supports risk assets—especially equities—though investors remain alert to potential volatility as delayed reports hit the tape over the coming weeks.
Upcoming Macro Data
| Date | Time (ET) | Event | Expectations | Signal | Scenario | Probability | Expected Move in S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13 2025 | 08:30 | Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Oct) | Slight uptick in inflation | 🟩 | Bull | 30% | +1.0% |
| 🟨 | Neutral | 50% | ±0.2% | ||||
| 🟥 | Bear | 20% | –1.5% | ||||
| Nov 14 2025 | 08:30 | Producer Price Index (PPI) (Oct) | Moderate rise | 🟩 | Bull | 25% | +0.8% |
| 🟨 | Neutral | 55% | ±0.3% | ||||
| 🟥 | Bear | 20% | –1.2% | ||||
| Nov 17 2025 | 08:30 | Empire State Manufacturing Survey | Slight manufacturing uptick | 🟩 | Bull | 35% | +0.7% |
| 🟨 | Neutral | 50% | ±0.2% | ||||
| 🟥 | Bear | 15% | –1.0% | ||||
| Nov 18 2025 | 09:15 | Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization | Modest increase | 🟩 | Bull | 30% | +0.9% |
| 🟨 | Neutral | 50% | ±0.3% | ||||
| 🟥 | Bear | 20% | –1.3% | ||||
| Nov 25 2025 | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence | Slight improvement | 🟩 | Bull | 40% | +1.1% |
| 🟨 | Neutral | 45% | ±0.4% | ||||
| 🟥 | Bear | 15% | –1.0% |
🟩 Green = Bullish 🟨 Yellow = Neutral 🟥 Red = Bearish
FED Outlook
Markets currently see a roughly two-thirds chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with the decision heavily contingent on upcoming inflation and growth data. While the Fed maintains an easing bias, recent comments from Chair Powell and other officials stress that no additional cut is guaranteed—if inflation re-accelerates or activity rebounds, the Committee may pause.
In essence, the baseline scenario remains a December cut, but the risks have tilted. A hotter-than-expected CPI or stronger growth could derail the move, while weaker data would strengthen the case for easing and reinforce the bullish tone across equities.