Market Update
The U.S. government has left investors flying blind.
Due to the federal government shutdown starting October 1, several key economic and financial datasets were not released — data our SP500 Indicator critically depends on.
Missing Data – The Blind Spots
Among the reports still unavailable are:
- Commitments of Traders (CFTC) – essential for tracking positioning in futures markets and highly important for calculation of the SP500 Indicator
- JOLTS job openings (BLS) – a key signal for labor-market tightness
- Retail Sales (Census Bureau) – important for consumer-spending momentum
- PPI and PCE Price Index (BEA) – both crucial for inflation trend assessment
- Treasury International Capital (TIC) data – tracking foreign demand for U.S. assets
Without these releases, quantitative models and institutional strategies have been operating in partial darkness.
Workaround and Current Readings
We developed a temporary workaround to compensate for the missing signals and maintain at least partially reliable readings — though within a clearly elevated uncertainty range.
Despite this handicap, the available signals now show a noticeably more bullish picture.
After three turbulent and choppy weeks, momentum and accumulation patterns have turned positive. Both the daily and weekly SP500 Indicators have shifted into green territory, suggesting renewed buying pressure.
Seasonal Outlook
Historically, late October and the first half of November have offered some of the best seasonal buying opportunities.
However, this time, stock selection will be key — the market is broadening, and capital rotation into mid- and small-caps is becoming increasingly evident.
Bottom line:
The SP500 Indicator is back online — but until the data blackout fully clears, all readings must be viewed through the lens of uncertainty.
When Washington sleeps, the markets dream.