After a new ATH and a harsh retest of the breakout levels, price action points towards Accumulation and further upside. However, the coming days are loaded with highly important events and key data releases:
Macro / Central Banks
Wed (20:00) – FOMC Minutes (July) Impact: If minutes confirm strong consensus for September cuts, equities and gold may bounce, while USD and front-end yields could soften. Any hawkish dissent risks the opposite reaction.
Thu–Sat – Jackson Hole Symposium (theme: labor markets) • Fri (16:00) – Powell keynote Impact: The pivotal event of the week. A dovish lean (labor weakness emphasized) could fuel equity upside, compress yields, and weaken the USD. A neutral/hawkish tone would pressure risk assets and support the dollar.
Wed – RBNZ Rate Decision (expected 25 bp cut) Impact: A cut should weigh on NZD, though forward guidance will decide whether the move is a “one-and-done” or the start of a cycle.
Key Data Releases
Wed – UK CPI (July) Impact: A softer print reinforces BoE cut expectations → GBP downside, Gilts bid. A hot print risks a GBP rally.
Thu (rolling, global) – Flash PMIs (August) Impact: Weak PMIs across EU/US could revive slowdown fears → equity volatility, bond rally. Stronger readings support cyclical stocks, weigh on bonds.
Thu (14:30) – US Initial Jobless Claims Impact: Elevated claims would strengthen the case for cuts → bullish bonds, equities; bearish USD. Stable claims support Fed caution.
Thu (16:00) – US Existing Home Sales (July) Impact: Weak housing data signals higher rate sensitivity → bond rally, pressure on homebuilders/retail. Strong data eases recession fears.
Earnings (Retail-Focused)
Tue (BMO) – Home Depot (HD) Impact: Weak home improvement spend would flag housing softness → pressure on housing-related equities. Solid pro demand could support sentiment.
Wed (BMO) – Target (TGT) Impact: Margin compression from tariffs/promos risks retail sector weakness. Better-than-feared traffic would stabilize consumer sentiment.
Thu (BMO) – Walmart (WMT) Impact: The most important read on the U.S. consumer. Strong results could lift staples, retail ETFs, and broader consumer confidence. Weak numbers risk a retail-led drag on indices.
Heads-up (next Wed, Aug 27) – NVIDIA (NVDA) Impact: The single most market-moving earnings event this month. Guidance on AI demand can swing semis and the entire Nasdaq.
⚡ Trading Takeaway: This week is all about policy signals (Powell + FOMC minutes) vs. consumer reality (retail earnings + housing data). Expect rates vol → USD → equities transmission. If Powell leans dovish and Walmart confirms resilient consumers, risk assets could attempt a late-summer rally. A hawkish Powell or weak retail/housing data flips the script toward risk-off.