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'Bullish Momentum Returns: S&P 500 Surges Past 6300 as Crypto Rally Accelerates

'2025-07-18'
Now Playing 'Bullish Momentum Returns: S&P 500 Surges Past 6300 as Crypto Rally Accelerates

Yesterday’s trading session marked a decisive turning point, providing much-needed clarity for market participants.

Key Observations:

  1. S&P 500 Indicator: The proprietary S&P 500 Indicator registered its second consecutive bullish impulse, signaling a clear shift towards bullish momentum.

  2. Technical Breakout: The index achieved a daily close above the critical 6300 level. This resolves the recent distribution phase around this area and paves the way for further upside. Any pullbacks to, or slightly below, 6300 should be viewed as attractive buying opportunities.

  3. Earnings Season: Thus far, 4–7% of S&P 500 constituents have reported Q2 2025 results, with earnings generally exceeding expectations. Blended EPS growth remains positive at 4.8% YoY, though this represents the slowest pace since Q4 2023. Revenue growth stands at approximately 4.2% YoY, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of revenue expansion. FactSet Source

  4. Crypto Market Surge: Digital assets continue to outperform, reflecting robust liquidity conditions. The latest crypto rally has been fueled by several pivotal regulatory developments in the U.S.:

GENIUS Act: Recently passed by the House (pending presidential signature), this legislation establishes the first nationwide regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, mandating robust reserves, regular audits, and stringent transparency standards.

CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act): Clearly delineates which digital assets are regulated as securities (under SEC oversight) versus commodities (CFTC), providing essential legal certainty for market participants.

Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act: Prohibits the U.S. Federal Reserve from launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC), thereby addressing concerns over financial surveillance.

SEC Guidance: In early 2025, the SEC created a cross-agency Digital Assets Working Group and a Crypto Task Force, later publishing guidelines affirming that Proof-of-Work (PoW) mining, meme coins, and certain stablecoins do not qualify as securities. The SEC also relaxed custody rules for broker-dealers and issued comprehensive crypto FAQs.

All three landmark bills were approved during the so-called “Crypto Week” in July 2025.

Summary: The outlook remains bullish for the short to medium term, particularly during the ongoing earnings season. Technology stocks are expected to continue outperforming other sectors. There are two caveats: Yesterday’s uncertainty with +-8 on the SP500Indicator is comparatively high. This is unusual, and often an indication of a larger move ahead. We don’t want to witness a false breakout with a bearish reversal happening today. As mentioned, severe news impacting the current earnings- and economical outlook would be needed to trigger such a move.