The S&P 500 Indicator issued a Bullish Impulse signal yesterday—and it didn’t take long to play out. Futures surged immediately after the open, likely driven by positioning ahead of today’s Triple Witching Day, when approximately $6.5 trillion in notional value of stock and index options are set to expire.
This surge may reflect more than just mechanical flows. The S&P 500 Indicator now interprets the recent consolidation phase as an accumulation pattern. After successfully retesting the 200-day moving average, the setup increasingly points toward an imminent breakout to the upside.
A Note of Caution: Due to yesterday’s market holiday, several critical data points remain unavailable. As a result, the uncertainty band of the S&P 500 Indicator is unusually wide today—currently showing a reading of -10, but potentially ranging anywhere from -21 to +24. This means the indicator may, in fact, already be back in bullish territory, pending full data confirmation.