Inflation Analysis & Forecaster
Composite inflation regime built from headline, core, pipeline, wage and expectation indicators — with a 6–12 month forecast conditioned on the OECD Composite Leading Indicator.
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Inflation
Composite score: -- — weighted average of 5 sub-scores rescaled to -2..+2 (high = inflationary, low = deflationary).
Sub-Score Breakdown
Bars show the dominant constituent's YoY % per sub-score; regime badge classifies that level on the same 5-state scale as the composite.
Forecast (Markov + Persistence)
Headline CPI YoY % point estimates with ±1.5σ confidence band.
6-month regime probability
Forecast conditions on the OECD US CLI 6-month change to pick the rising / falling transition matrix. Width = P(regime).
CPI Component Breakdown
Historical contribution of each BLS expenditure group to headline CPI (weighted by CPI relative importance); the white line is actual headline CPI YoY. Last 60 months.
Current year-over-year change for each group. Colour shows where pressure is highest (red) vs disinflating (green) right now.
CPI Component Analysis
Detailed history for each BLS expenditure group — 60 months of YoY % with regime classification, current value, 5y range, and 3m / 12m trend arrows. Use this to see which components are accelerating, plateauing, or rolling over.
International Inflation
See on World MapPer-country regime built from OECD harmonised CPI (headline + core blended), classified on the same 5-state palette as the US model. Source: OECD SDMX.
| Country | Regime History (24 Months) | YoY | Score | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Click a country to view its 6-month forecast and probability bar in the panel on the right.
USA vs. Global
Select a country
6-month forecast probability
YoY 6m forecast: --
Understanding the Inflation Cycle
Composite Score
The composite Inflation Score is a weighted average of five sub-scores, each summarising 2–5 underlying FRED series via the same EMA / SMA / Ehlers Super Smoother strength indicator used elsewhere on the dashboard:
- Headline pressure (30%): CPI YoY, PCE YoY, headline z-score vs 3-year history.
- Core stickiness (25%): Core CPI, Core PCE, Cleveland Fed Median & Trimmed-Mean CPI — the noise-filtered measures the Fed actually cares about.
- Pipeline pressure (20%): PPI Finished + Intermediate + Crude, Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (NY Fed), import prices.
- Wage pressure (15%): ECI Wages & Salaries, ECI Benefits (quarterly).
- Expectations (10%): 5Y / 10Y breakevens, U-Mich 1Y inflation expectation, Cleveland Fed 1Y / 10Y model.
The composite is mapped to a -2 to +2 scale where high values mean inflationary, low values disinflationary — inverted relative to Labour and Housing where high = bullish.
Forecast Methodology
Two parallel forecasts run for each horizon (1 / 3 / 6 / 12 months):
- Markov regime path: historical empirical 5×5 transition matrix between regimes, conditioned on the sign of the OECD Composite Leading Indicator's 6-month change. Yields P(regimet+h | regimet, CLI rising/falling).
- Headline CPI YoY point projection: exponential smoothing of CPI YoY toward its 5-year median, plus a CLI-derived drift fitted by simple OLS on historical forward-h YoY changes vs CLI z-score. ±1.5σ confidence band from in-sample residuals.
Component-level forecasts (Shelter / Energy / Food / ...) use the same persistence mechanism without CLI conditioning — component-level CLI signal is too noisy.
International Coverage
For ~17 OECD members the same Markov + Persistence + CLI mechanism runs on per-country headline + core CPI YoY (blended 60/40 when both are published). Score is centred at the typical 2% inflation target. The country regime feeds the world-map dropdown on the Global Equities Dashboard.
Data Sources: FRED (BLS, BEA, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed, U-Mich — Public Domain), OECD SDMX (per-country CPI & CLI).